In October, the domestic aniline market fell sharply after a narrow rebound. During the National Day, the price of crude oil plunged, the rapid shipment of dangerous chemicals was limited, and the market rumor that Xu Yang Connell aniline device would restart in late October, multiple negative factors overlapped, the National Day era aniline shipments were not good, and the company’s inventory was high. After the festival, although Tianji, Jinling Dongying equipment in accordance with the maintenance, but some aniline companies face the risk of swelling inventory, some enterprises shipment intention to strengthen, dark drop shipments, and the bill continues to be weak, the market value decline trend from dark to bright, just four days, the aniline market decline reached 2700 yuan/ton around. In late October, because a number of devices are still parked for maintenance, supply is tightened, and aniline prices are stable and small.
In October, the value of promoters was stable at first and then decreased. During the National Day period, the collapse of crude oil led to the reduction of the price of pure benzene, the rapid shipment of dangerous chemicals and the multiple negative factors such as Connell will be restarted, the price of aniline fell one after another, and the decline exceeded expectations, and the support for the cost of auxiliaries weakened significantly. By this effect, the price of the promoter began to decline, due to the fact that the storage of high-price raw materials has not been fully consumed in the early stage, resulting in the price of the promoter production enterprises slowly falling, and there is a certain lag in the reflection of raw materials. The requirements of downstream enterprises are slightly weak in the month, the new orders are only just needed, the mood of buying up does not buy down on the floor is deep, and the actual volume is limited.
Accelerator market review:
The market price of accelerants rose sharply in September. In early October, the price of crude oil rose strongly, and the strong promotion of pure benzene and nitric acid led to the upward movement of aniline prices. In addition, downstream tire enterprises start high-load operation, due to the accumulation of more orders in the early stage, the demand for additives is relatively strong, and under the influence of multiple factors such as rising costs and strong downstream demand, the price of accelerators continues to rise. In late October, although the pure benzene market has a high correction, due to the shutdown and maintenance of individual aniline devices, the market supply is tightened, resulting in aniline prices are still strong, and the cost of auxiliaries is strongly supported. Near the double section, the downstream enterprises stock demand, the actual delivery order of the accelerator is more, the enterprise inventory is low, the supply of some mainstream accelerator is tight, and the positive atmosphere on the floor is permeated, the accelerator rally continues.
In September, the operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly from August. At the beginning of the month, the maintenance of all steel tire enterprises resumed work, and the construction of half steel tire enterprises continued to be high, and the overall operating rate rose. New orders of all steel tire enterprises show differentiation, foreign trade orders of some small-scale enterprises have declined, the overall foreign trade orders of other enterprises are relatively stable, and new orders of semi-steel tire enterprises are sufficient. In the middle of October, foreign trade orders were supported, the operating rate of all steel tires and half steel tires enterprises remained high, foreign trade shipments were concentrated, and the overall inventory of enterprises was slightly lower. In late October, the production rhythm of enterprises continued and maintained a high state of operation, especially for all steel tire enterprises, in order to replenish inventory, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work did not decrease, slightly boosting the overall operating rate. Some of the price increases in today’s product prices, more than 2-3%, and some have issued notices to the price list of enterprises has not yet been adjusted, enterprises according to their own inventory situation, moderate adjustment policy, after the price increase, product shipments slowed down, enterprises into the inventory stage. Overall, in September, the overall operating rate of tire companies was near 62.67%, of which the full steel tire operating rate was 63%, the half steel tire operating rate was 79%, and the bias tire operating rate was 46%.
Supply increases demand reduces profit and empty market
For the future market of aniline, the general confidence in the industry is insufficient. Jiang Yiyu pointed out in the research report that at the end of October, the early maintenance and parking devices will be restarted, and under the expectation of increased supply, the aniline market may not be optimistic.
From late October to early November, multiple sets of aniline devices were restarted successively, involving an annual capacity of 640,000 tons. Although Huatai and Nanhua two sets of aniline devices will enter the maintenance state in early November, the total annual maintenance capacity of 360,000 tons, only half of the restart capacity, is difficult to achieve an effective balance. Under the expectation of oversupply, the aniline market may seek the equilibrium point of supply and demand again.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Zhang Cuiru also believes that supply and demand changes will cause a certain drag on the future market. In terms of supply, after entering November, the maintenance equipment has been resumed work successively, and the new aniline production capacity in Fujian has been released successively, and the market supply is expected to increase. In terms of demand, the demand for downstream polymerized MDI and rubber auxiliaries in October is expected to be temporarily stable, but after entering November, some terminal areas have entered the off-season, and the demand for aniline is expected to decrease, which may produce a certain bearish drag on the aniline market.
Cost side support is strong
Baichuan Yingfu Chemical team pointed out in the research report that due to the intensification of international conflicts, crude oil prices continue to rise, the pure benzene market trend upward, and the aniline cost surface support is strong. On October 25, the average price of pure benzene market was 7917.17 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 1.28%.
For pure benzene aftermarket, the Baichuan Yingfu chemical team believes that there are favorable factors in downstream demand. In terms of aniline, recently, Shanxi has 260,000 tons/annual capacity of aniline equipment resumed work, and the daily demand for pure benzene increased by 260 tons. In Shandong, there are 200,000 tons/annual capacity of aniline equipment to finish the overhaul recently, and another factory of the company has 60,000 tons/annual capacity of aniline equipment to enter the overhaul, and the daily demand for pure benzene increased by 460 tons. The resumption of production of an aniline plant in Northeast China increased the daily demand for pure benzene in the north by 260 tons. In terms of phenol ketones, the industry will contribute 1.8 million tons/year of new production capacity in November, taking into account the new production capacity test and other issues, the monthly demand for new phenol ketones production capacity of pure benzene is about 45,000 tons. Overall, the increase in demand for pure benzene market to form a favorable support.
Experts maintain a strong view of the pure benzene aftermarket. In its research report, it pointed out that at present, international crude oil is expected to maintain a high or strong trend under the continuous production reduction policy of oil-producing countries, which forms a favorable cost support for the domestic benzene industry chain market.
On the whole, the expected oversupply has a negative impact on the aniline market, but the good news from the cost side also supports the price trend, and the aniline market may maintain a small volatile trend in the dilemma.
Article from M&J International Trading Co., Ltd
